What is Lazard Global Total Return & Fd Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Lazard Global Total Return & Fd Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Lazard Global Total Return & Fd (Lazard Global Total Return & Fd) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
30 Rockefeller Plaza, 57th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10112
Lazard Global Total Return & Inc Fd Inc is a United States-based diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is total return consisting of capital appreciation and income. The fund's portfolio of investment consists of different sector investments such as consumer staples, financials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, materials, sovereign debt, and others.
Executives
| Christopher Snively |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Evan L Russo |
director |
C/O LAZARD LTD, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Nargis Hilal |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Andrew Lacey |
other: Deputy Chairman of LAM (1) |
|
| Christina M. Kennedy |
officer: Assistant Treasurer |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Jessica A Falzone |
officer: Assistant Secretary |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| William B Rosenberg |
other: See comment* |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Ronald Temple |
other: Portfolio manager of issuer |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Shari L. Soloway |
officer: Assistant Secretary |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Mark Richard Anderson |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
C/O LAZARD MANAGEMENT LLC, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Franci J Blassberg |
director |
C/O DEBEVOISE & PLIMPTON LLP, 919 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Tamar Goldstein |
officer: Interim CCO & Asst. Secy(1) |
30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112-6300 |
| Trevor William Morrison |
director |
40 WASHINGTON SQUARE SOUTH, 406D, NEW YORK NY 10012 |
| Barnaby Wilson |
other: Portfolio manager of issuer |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
| Louis Florentin-lee |
other: Portfolio manager of issuer |
C/O LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10112 |
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