What is Leslies Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Leslies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Leslies (Leslies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2005 East Indian School Road, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85016
Leslies Inc is a direct-to-consumer pool and spa care brand offering a comprehensive assortment of products across chemicals, equipment and parts, cleaning and maintenance equipment, and safety, recreational, and fitness-related products. The company offers its products and services for Residential Pool, Residential Spa, Professional Pool, and Commercial Pool consumers. Geographically, it operates only in the United States.
Executives
| Mike Africa |
officer: See Remarks |
2005 E. INDIAN SCHOOL ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Dave Caspers |
officer: Chief Stores Officer |
2005 E. INDIAN SCHOOL ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Naomi Cramer |
officer: Chief People Officer |
2005 E. INDIAN SCHOOL ROAD, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Steven M Weddell |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O L CATTERTON, 599 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Michael R. Egeck |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
71 STEVENSON STREET, 22ND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105 |
| Scott Justin Bowman |
officer: See Remarks |
451 INDUSTRIAL LANE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35211 |
| Bubbles Investor Aggregator, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
599 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Brad Gazaway |
officer: See Remarks |
2005 E INDIAN SCHOOL RD, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Claire Spofford |
director |
4 BATTERYMARCH PARK, QUINCY MA 02169 |
| Moyo Labode |
officer: Chief Merchandising Officer |
2005 E INDIAN SCHOOL RD, PHOENIX AZ 85016 |
| Gic Private Ltd |
10 percent owner |
168 ROBINSON ROAD, #37-01 CAPITAL TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 068912 |
| Paula Baker |
officer: Chief Revenue Officer |
7601 PENN AVENUE SOUTH, RICHFIELD MN 55423 |
| Ray James R Jr |
director |
COMMERCIAL VEHICLE GROUP, INC., 7800 WALTON PARKWAY, NEW ALBANY OH 43054 |
| Eric J Kufel |
director |
|
| John Strain |
director |
2 FOLSOM STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105 |
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