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Leatt (LEAT) Predictability Rank


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What is Leatt Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Leatt Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Leatt Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Leatt (LEAT) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Leatt Corp (OTCPK:LEAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PLBY GDHG FGH BFX PRKA DSHK SRM DOGZ SPGC KICK TSE:4661 HKSE:02020 LSE:CCL TSE:7309 TSE:7832 HAS HKSE:02331 MAT PLNT YETI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Atlas Gardens, Contermanskloof Road, 12 Kiepersol Drive, Durbanville, WC, ZAF, 7550
Website
https://www.leatt.com
Leatt Corp designs, develops, markets, and distributes personal protective equipment for participants in all forms of motorsports and leisure activities, including riders of motorcycles, bicycles, snowmobiles, and ATVs, as well as racing car drivers. It operates through the Leatt-Brace brand which offers a patented injection molded neck protection system designed to prevent potentially devastating injuries to the cervical spine and neck. Leatt also acts as the original equipment manufacturer for neck braces sold by other international brands. Geographically all the operations function through the region of the US.
Executives
Christopher James Leatt director, 10 percent owner C/O LEATT CORP., 50 KIEPERSOL CRESCENT, ATLAS GARDENS, CONTERMANSKLOOF, DURBANVILLE, CAPE TOWN T3 7550
Sean Macdonald director, officer: CEO, CFO C/O LEATT CORP., 50 KIEPERSOL CRESCENT, ATLAS GARDENS, CONTERMANSKLOOF, DURBANVILLE, CAPE TOWN T3 7550
Jeffrey J Guzy director 3130 19TH STREET, NORTH, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Villiers Jean-pierre De 10 percent owner GOEDEMOED FARM, KEISIE VALLEY, MONTAGU T3 6720
Zafiris M. Zafiropoulos director C/P LEATT CORP., 50 KIEPERSOL CRESCENT, ATLAS GARDEN, CONTERMANSKLOOF, DURBANVILLE, CAPE TOWN T3 7550