What is Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, (Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund,) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
811 Main Street, 14th Floor, Houston, TX, USA, 77002
Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund, Inc is a non-diversified, closed-end fund. Its investment objective is to provide a high after-tax total return with an emphasis on making cash distributions to the stockholder. The company seeks to achieve its objectives by investing at least 80% of its total assets in the securities of Energy Infrastructure companies.
Executives
| James C Baker |
officer: Vice President |
C/O KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P, 1800 AVENUE OF THE STARS, THIRD FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors Lp |
other: SEE NOTE (2) |
2121 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 9TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Logan Ron M Jr |
officer: SENIOR VP |
PO BOX 131574, HOUSTON TX 77219 |
| Terry A Hart |
officer: Treasurer and CFO |
1000 LOUISIANA STREET SUITE 5800, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| John C Frey |
officer: Assistant Secretary |
C/O KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS LP, 1800 AVENUE OF THE STARS, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Metlife Investment Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
ONE METLIFE WAY, WHIPPANY NJ 07981 |
| Carita Walker |
director |
2519 PANORAMA TER, LOS ANGELES CA 90039 |
| Principal Life Insurance Co |
10 percent owner |
711 HIGH STREET, DES MOINES IA 50392-0300 |
| Caroline Ann Winn |
director |
14914 VALLE DEL SUR COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92127 |
| Parker Austin Colby |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
811 MAIN STREET, 14TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| William R Cordes |
director |
17237 HOWARD PLAZA, OMAHA NE 68118 |
| Guardian Life Insurance Co Of America |
10 percent owner |
10 HUDSON YARDS, NY NY 10001 |
| Guardian Insurance & Annuity Co Inc |
10 percent owner |
10 HUDSON YARDS, 22 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Thrivent Financial For Lutherans |
10 percent owner |
901 MARQUETTE AVENUE, SUITE 2500, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402-3211 |
| Michael J Levitt |
director |
KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 1800 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 3RD FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
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