Kaixin Holdings (Kaixin Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Kaixin Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kaixin Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kaixin Holdings (Kaixin Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Kaixin Holdings (NAS:KXIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

K640:Germany

Address

Huagong Road, 9th Floor, Tower A, Dongjin International Center, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100015

Website

https://ir.kaixin.com

Kaixin Auto Holdings is an auto retail platform for luxury used cars and imported new cars. The company is actively engaged in the research and development, design, manufacturing, and sales of electric vehicles and promotes the innovation of next-generation autonomous driving and artificial intelligence technologies. The company primarily generates revenues from sales of used cars, as well as fees obtained from its role as a channel partner for third-party auto financing and other value-added service providers.

Executives

Value Fund Shareholder	10 percent owner	SUITE 100-1004, 10F,ICBC TOWER, THREE GARDEN ROAD, CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 0000000
Sing Wang	director	SUITE 1003-1004, 10/F, ICBC TOWER, THREE GARDEN ROAD, CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 00000
Renren Inc.	10 percent owner	45 WEST BUCHANAN STREET, PHOENIX AZ 85003
Jun Ma	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Joseph Chen	director	23/F, JING AN CENTER, 8 NORTH THIRD RING, ROAD EAST, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100028
Chen Ji	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Xiaoguang Li	officer: Vice President of Marketing	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Lin Zhu	officer: VP of FP and CM	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Lin Cong	director	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Jinfeng Xie	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Suli Cui	officer: Vice President of Finance	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Tianruo Pu	director	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Thomas Jintao Ren	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
James Jian Liu	director	C/O KAIXIN AUTO HOLDINGS, 5/F NORTH WING, 18 JIUXIANQUIAO NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100016
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc.	10 percent owner	16 YORK STREET SUITE 2900, TORONTO A6 M5J 0E6