Karuna Therapeutics (Karuna Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Karuna Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Karuna Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Karuna Therapeutics (Karuna Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Karuna Therapeutics Inc (NAS:KRTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KRTX:Mexico

Address

99 High Street, 26th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02110

Website

https://www.karunatx.com

Karuna Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing novel therapies to address disabling neuropsychiatric conditions characterized by unmet medical needs. Its product candidate, KarXT is an oral modulator of muscarinic receptors that are located both in the central nervous system, or CNS, and various peripheral tissues.

Executives

Stephen K. Brannan	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O KARUNA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 33 ARCH STREET, SUITE 3110, BOSTON MA 02110
Jason Parker Brown	officer: Chief Financial Officer	KARUNA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 99 HIGH STREET, 26TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Jeffrey M Jonas	director	ROBERTS SHERIDAN & KOTEL, 12 EAST 49TH STREET 30TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017
Troy A. Ignelzi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 46701 COMMERCE CENTER DRIVE, PLYMOUTH MI 48170
Andrew Craig Miller	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O KARUNA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 33 ARCH STREET, SUITE 3110, BOSTON MA 02110
Laurie J Olson	director	C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Kane William P Jr	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O BIOXCEL THERAPEUTICS, INC., 555 LONG WHARF DRIVE, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
James Healy	director	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
William Meury	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O FOREST LABORATORIES, INC., 909 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Atul Pande	director	C/O AXOVANT SCIENCES, INC., 1441 BROADWAY, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Charmaine Lykins	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O KARUNA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 99 HIGH STREET, 26TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Steven M Paul	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O ELI LITTY & CO, LIIY CORPORATE CENTER DC 1093, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Puretech Health Llc	10 percent owner	501 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 6102, BOSTON MA 02116
Denice Torres	director	3 RABBIT RUN DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938
David E. Wheadon	director	C/O ASSERTIO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 SOUTH SAUNDERS ROAD, SUITE 300, LAKE FOREST IL 60045