Koss (KOSS) Predictability Rank

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What is Koss Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Koss Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Koss (KOSS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Koss Corp (NAS:KOSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4129 North Port Washington Avenue, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53212

Website

https://www.koss.com

Koss Corp is engaged in the design, manufacture, and sale of stereo headphones and related accessory products. It operates in the audio/video industry segment of the home entertainment industry. The company markets a line of headphones, wireless Bluetooth headphones, wireless Bluetooth speakers, computer headsets, telecommunications headsets, and active noise-cancelling headphones. The majority of the firm's revenue is derived from sales of stereo headphones.

Executives

William Jesse Sweasy	director	401 LEVEE STREET, RED WING MN 55066
Kim M. Schulte	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4129 NORTH PORT WASHINGTON AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
David Donnan Smith	officer: EVP and CFO	4129 N PORT WASHINGTON ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Koss Michael J Jr	officer: VP Marketing & Product	4129 N PORT WASHINGTON AVENUE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Michael J Koss	officer: President and CEO	C/O GENIUS PRODUCTS, INC., 740 LOMAS SANTA FE, SUITE 210, SOLANA BEACH CA 92075
Koss John C Jr	officer: Vice President - Sales	C/O KOSS CORPORATION, 4129 N PORT WASHINGTON ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Thomas L. Doerr	director	4129 N. PORT WASHINGTON ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Lenore Lillie	officer: VP - Operations	4129 N PORT WASHINGTON ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Nancy Koss 2012 Trust, Dated 12/20/12	10 percent owner	1492 W. CALUMET CT., RIVER HILLS WI 53217
Steven A Leveen	director	1030 SEA SPRAY AVENUE, DELRAY BEACH FL 33483
Theodore Nixon	director	100 SOUTH SPRING STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40206
Elizabeth A Uecker	officer: Secretary	4129 N PORT WASHINGTON ROAD, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
John C Koss	director	4129 NORTH PORT WASHINGTON AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Nancy L Koss	10 percent owner	1492 W. CALUMET CT., RIVER HILLS WI 53217
Koss Family Trust, Dated 9/11/12	10 percent owner	1492 W. CALUMET CT., RIVER HILLS WI 53217