Kennametal (Kennametal) Predictability Rank

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What is Kennametal Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kennametal Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kennametal (Kennametal) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Kennametal Inc (NYSE:KMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KM3:Germany

Address

525 William Penn Place, Suite 3300, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15219

Website

https://www.kennametal.com

Kennametal Inc is a manufacturer of metalworking tools and wear-resistant engineered components and coatings. The company operates in two business segments: Metal Cutting and infrastructure. It generates maximum revenue from the Metal Cutting segment. The Metal Cutting segment develops and manufactures high performance tooling and metal cutting products and services and offers an assortment of standard and custom metal cutting solutions to diverse end markets, including aerospace, general engineering, energy, and transportation. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

William J. Harvey	director	26 PHEASANT'S RIDGE SOUTH, GREENVILLE DE 19807
Cindy L Davis	director	2635 SW GRENWOLDE PLACE, PORTLAND OR 97201
William M Lambert	director	C/O MSA SAFETY, 1000 CRANBERRY WOODS DRIVE, CRANBERRY TWP PA 16066
Joseph Alvarado	director	705 N. BAR Y ROAD, P.O. BOX 11368, JACKSON WY 83002
Christopher Rossi	officer: President and CEO	C/O KENNAMETAL INC., 525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, 33RD FLOOR, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
John Wayne Witt	officer: Vice President	525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, SUITE 3300, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Sanjay Chowbey	officer: Vice President	525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, SUITE 3300, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Franklin Cardenas	officer: Vice President	525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, SUITE 3300, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Steven H Wunning	director	471 EAST HIGH POINT DRIVE, PEORIA IL 61614
Lorraine M Martin	director	1121 SPRING LAKE DRIVE, ITASCA IL 60143
Paul Sternlieb	director	70 WEST MADISON SUITE 4400, CHICAGO IL 60602
Judith L Bacchus	officer: Vice President	525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, 33RD FLOOR, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Patrick S Watson	officer: Vice President	525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, 33RD FLOOR, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Ronald L Port	officer: Vice President	525 WILLIAM PENN PLACE, 33RD FLOOR, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Lawrence W Stranghoener	director	2035 KIMBERLY COURT, PLYMOUTH MN 55447