Koil Energy Solutions (Koil Energy Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Koil Energy Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Koil Energy Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Koil Energy Solutions (Koil Energy Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Koil Energy Solutions Inc (OTCPK:KLNG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1310 Rankin Road, Houston, TX, USA, 77073

Website

https://www.koilenergy.com

Koil Energy Solutions Inc is an energy services company that provides equipment and support services to the world's energy and offshore industries. Its core services and technological solutions include distribution system installation support and engineering services, umbilical terminations, loose-tube steel flying leads, and related services. Additionally, its team can support subsea engineering, manufacturing, installation, commissioning, and maintenance projects. Its products include Buoyancy Solutions, Flying Leads, Storage, and Transportation, Subsea Fluid and Power Distribution, and Umbilical Termination Solutions.

Executives

Trevor L Ashurst	officer: Vice President of Finance	18511 BEAUMONT HIGHWAY, HOUSTON TX 77049
Ronald Eric Smith	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO and Director	3020 SOUTH ISLAND DRIVE, SEABROOK TX 77586
Micah Thomas Simmons	officer: Chief Operating Officer	18511 BEAUMONT HIGHWAY, HOUSTON TX 77049
Neal I Goldman	director	170 SOUTHPORT DRIVE, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
David J. Douglas	director, 10 percent owner	3889 MAPLE AVE., 6TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75219
Charles K Njuguna	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	PO BOX 1389, CROSBY TX 77532
Eugene L Butler	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	PO BOX 12818, HOUSTON TX 77217
Wellington Trust Company, National Association Multiple Common Trust Funds Trust, Micro Cap Equity Portfolio	10 percent owner	C/O WELLINGTON TRUST COMPANY, NA, 280 CONGRESS STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
Mary Lynne Budrunas	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Secretary & Director	3020 SOUTH ISLAND DRIVE, SEABROOK TX 77586
Mark Carden	director	18511 BEAUMONT HIGHWAY, HOUSTON TX 77049
Randolph W Warner	director	8827 W. SAM HOUSTON PKWY N, #100, HOUSTON TX 77040
Perlus Microcap Fund L.p.	10 percent owner	CRICKET SQUARE, HUTCHINS DRIVE, P.O. BOX 268, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1111
Ira Selya	officer: Corporate Controller	8827 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY N, STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77040
Gay Stanley Mayeux	officer: VP and CFO	8827 W. SAM HOUSTON PKWY N., STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77040
Mark R Hollinger	director	8827 W. SAM HOUSTON PKWY N, STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77040