What is Key Energy Services Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Key Energy Services Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Key Energy Services (Key Energy Services) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1301 McKinney Street, Suite 1800, Houston, TX, USA, 77010
Key Energy Services Inc is an onshore, rig-based well-servicing contractor. It provides a full range of well-services to oil companies, and independent oil and natural gas production companies. Its services include rig-based and coiled tubing-based well maintenance and workover services, well completion and re-completion services, fluid management services, fishing, and rental services, and other ancillary oilfield services. Its segment includes Rig Services, Fishing, and Rental Services, Coiled Tubing Services and Fluid Management Services within the United States. The company derives the maximum revenue from the Rig Services segment.
Executives
| Louis Coale |
officer: VP and Controller |
41 ROLLING LINKS SPRING TX 77386 |
| Nelson Haight |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4400 POST OAK PARKWAY, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| Marcus C Rowland |
director |
920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Alan B. Menkes |
director |
1160 DAIRY ASHFORD RD, STE 160, HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| Katherine Hargis |
officer: VP, CLO and Secretary |
1301 MCKINNEY STREET SUITE 1800 HOUSTON TX 77010 |
| Sherman Iii Edmiston |
director |
ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ONE CITYPLACE DRIVE, SUITE 300, ST. LOUIS MO 63141 |
| Wommack H H Iii |
director |
SOUTHWEST ROYALTIES INC, 407 N BIG SPRING STREET SUITE 300, MIDLAND TX 79701 |
| Jacob Kotzubei |
director |
360 NORTH CRESCENT DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210 |
| J Marshall Dodson |
officer: President, CEO, Interim CFO |
C/O KEY ENERGY SERVICES, INC. 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 1800 HOUSTON TX 77010 |
| Goldman Sachs & Co. Llc |
10 percent owner |
200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282 |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc |
10 percent owner |
200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282 |
| Blackrock Inc. |
10 percent owner |
50 HUDSON YARDS, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Bluemountain Capital Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
280 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Bluemountain Gp Holdings, Llc |
10 percent owner |
280 PARK AVENUE,, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Blue Mountain Credit Alternatives Master Fund L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O BLUEMOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 280 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR EAST, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
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