What is Kyndryl Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Kyndryl Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Kyndryl Holdings (Kyndryl Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
One Vanderbilt Avenue, 15th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Kyndryl Holdings Inc is a technology services and infrastructure services provider company. It provides advisory, implementation, and managed services across a range of technology domains to help customers manage and modernize enterprise IT environments in support of their business and transformation objectives.
Executives
| Elly Keinan |
officer: Group President |
ONE NEW ORCHARD ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Martin J Schroeter |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
IBM CORPORATION, ONE NEW ORCHARD ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| David B Wyshner |
officer: CFO & Treasurer |
C/O XPO LOGISTICS, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831 |
| Denis Machuel |
director |
ONE NEW ORCHARD ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Hester Stephen A. M. |
director |
ONE NEW ORCHARD ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Howard I Ungerleider |
director |
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| Goldman Sachs Group Inc |
10 percent owner |
200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282 |
| International Business Machines Corp |
director, 10 percent owner |
1 NEW ORCHARD RD, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Goldman Sachs & Co. Llc |
10 percent owner |
200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282 |
| John D Harris |
director |
C/O FLEXTRONICS INTERNATIONAL USA, INC., 6201 AMERICA CENTER DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95002 |
| Edward Sebold |
officer: General Counsel and Secretary |
ONE NEW ORCHARD ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Vineet Khurana |
officer: Vice President & Controller |
ONE NEW ORCHARD ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Janina Kugel |
director |
ONE NEW ORCHARD ROAD, ARMONK NY 10504 |
| Rahul N Merchant |
director |
C/O EMULEX CORPORATION, 3333 SUSAN STREET, COSTA MESA CA 92626 |
| Shirley A Jackson |
director |
110 8TH STREEET, TROY NY 12180-3590 |
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