The Joint (The Joint) Predictability Rank

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What is The Joint Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Joint Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Joint (The Joint) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » The Joint Corp (NAS:JYNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

16767 North Perimeter Drive, Suite 110, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, 85260

Website

https://www.thejoint.com

The Joint Corp develops, owns, operates, supports, and manages chiropractic clinics through direct ownership, management arrangements, franchising, and the sale of regional developer rights throughout the United States. The doctors of chiropractic develop personalized treatment plans to relieve patients' pain and deliver ongoing preventative care. The Company has two operating business segments; the Corporate Clinics segment is comprised of the operating activities of the company-owned or managed clinics, and The Franchise Operations segment is comprised of the operating activities of the franchise business unit. The company generates maximum revenue from the Corporate clinic's segment.

Executives

Bandera Partners Llc	10 percent owner	50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Peter D Holt	officer: Chief Operating Officer	16767 N. PERIMETER DR., SUITE 240, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Jake Singleton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	16767 NORTH PERIMETER DRIVE, SUITE 240, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Ronald V Davella	director	2600 E SOUTHLAKE BLVD., STE 120-359, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Glenn J Krevlin	10 percent owner	600 FIFTH AVE, 11TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10020
Matthew E Rubel	director	3231 SE SIXTH AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66607
Gregory Bylinsky	10 percent owner	C/O BANDERA PARTNERS LLC, 50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Jefferson Gramm	10 percent owner	C/O BANDERA PARTNERS LLC, 50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004
Amos James H. Jr	director	16767 N. PERIMETER DR., STE. 240, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
John P Meloun	officer: Chief Financial Officer	16767 N. PERIMETER DR., STE. 240, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Abe Hong	director	16767 NORTH PERIMETER DRIVE, SUITE 240, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Glenhill Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	600 FIFTH AVE, 11TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10020
Suzanne M Decker	director	16767 NORTH PERIMETER DRIVE, SUITE 240, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
Bret Sanders	director	16767 N. PERIMETER DR., STE. 240, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85260
David M Orwasher	officer: President and COO	242 W 36TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10018