JBG SMITH Properties (JBG SMITH Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is JBG SMITH Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

JBG SMITH Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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JBG SMITH Properties (JBG SMITH Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » JBG SMITH Properties (NYSE:JBGS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4747 Bethesda Avenue, Suite 200, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20814

Website

https://www.jbgsmith.com

JBG SMITH Properties is a real estate investment trust based in the United States. It owns, operates, invests in and develops real estate assets concentrated in urban infill submarkets in and around Washington, DC. In addition, the company also provides fee-based real estate services to the legacy funds through its third-party real estate services business. The operating segments of the company are commercial, multifamily and third-party asset management and real estate services.

Executives

Angela Valdes	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1600 NE MIAMI GARDENS DRIVE, NORTH MIAMI BEACH FL 33179
Kevin Reynolds	officer: Co-Chief Development Officer	C/O JBG/OPERATING PARTNERS, L.P., 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Steven A Museles	officer: Chief Legal Off. & Corp Secy
Madhumita Moina Banerjee	officer: EVP, HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS	C/O JBG SMITH PROPERTIES, 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
David Peter Paul	officer: Pres. & Chief Operating Off.	C/O JBG/OPERATING PARTNERS, 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Robert Alexander Stewart	director, officer: Executive Vice Chairman	C/O JBG/OPERATING PARTNERS, L.P., 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
George Laucks Xanders	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O JBG SMITH PROPERTIES, 4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE 200, BETHESDA MD 20814
Scott A Estes	director	WELLTOWER INC., 4500 DORR STREET, TOLEDO OH 43615
Alan S Forman	director	55 WHITNEY AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Phyllis R Caldwell	director	AMERICAN CAPITAL, LTD., 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 12TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Charles E Haldeman	director	C/O JBG/OPERATING PARTNERS, L.P., 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Alisa Michelle Mall	director	C/O JBG SMITH PROPERTIES, 4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE 200, BETHESDA MD 20814
Michael J Glosserman	director	THE JBG COMPANIES, 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
University Yale	director	YALE UNIVERSITY INVESTMENTS OFFICE, 55 WHITNEY AVENUE 5TH FLOOR, NEW HAVEN CT 06510-1300
James Lee Iker	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O JBG/OPERATING PARTNERS, L.P., 4445 WILLARD AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815