Janux Therapeutics (Janux Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Janux Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Janux Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Janux Therapeutics (Janux Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Janux Therapeutics Inc (NAS:JANX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10955 Vista Sorrento Parkway, Suite 200, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130

Website

https://www.januxrx.com

Janux Therapeutics Inc is an innovative biopharmaceutical company developing next-generation therapeutics based on proprietary tumor activated T Cell Engager platform technology to better treat patients suffering from cancer.

Executives

Tighe Reardon	10 percent owner, officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer	C/O SYNTHORX, INC., 11099 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 190, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Avalon Ventures Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	1134 KLINE STREET, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Jay Lichter	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ARATANA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 11400 TOMAHAWK CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 340, LEAWOOD KS 66211
Ra Capital Healthcare Fund Lp	director, 10 percent owner	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Ra Capital Nexus Fund Ii, L.p.	director	200 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Charles M. Winter	officer: Chief Technical Officer	C/O JANUX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 10955 VISTA SORRENTO PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Winston Kung	director	C/O PMV PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 8 CLARKE DRIVE, SUITE 3, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Byron Robinson	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O JANUX THERAPEUTICS, INC., 11099 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 290, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Peter A. Thompson	director	C/O ANTHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 25801 INDUSTRIAL BOULEVARD, SUITE B, HAYWARD CA 94545
Orbimed Capital Gp Viii Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-4629
Orbimed Capital Gp Vii Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Orbimed Genesis Gp Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Alana B. Mcnulty	director	C/O LUMENA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 12531 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 110, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Ronald W Barrett	director	C/O XENOPORT, INC., 3410 CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051