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Invivyd (Invivyd) Predictability Rank


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What is Invivyd Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Invivyd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Invivyd Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Invivyd (Invivyd) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1601 Trapelo Road, Suite 178, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451
Invivyd Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of antibody-based solutions for infectious diseases with pandemic potential. The company is developing antibodies to transcend the limits of naturally occurring immunity and provide superior protection from viral diseases, beginning with COVID-19. The company's product candidates are; ADG20 developed for the treatment and prevention of coronavirus disease, and VYD222, a monoclonal antibody candidate engineered, optimizing for potency and breadth of coverage, as well as providing a higher probability of retaining its utility for a longer duration in an evolving viral landscape.
Executives
Adimab, Llc 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks 7 LUCENT DRIVE, LEBANON NH 03766
William E. Duke officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O VALERITAS, INC., 750 ROUTE 202 SOUTH, SUITE 600, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Sara Cotter director 1735 MARKET STREET, FLOOR 23, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Allen Robert D. Iii officer: Chief Scientific Officer 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 178, WALTHAM MA 02451
Stacy Price officer: Chief Tech. and Manuf. Officer 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 178, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jeremy Gowler officer: COO & CCO 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 178, WALTHAM MA 02451
Rebecca Dabora officer: Chief Tech and Manuf Officer 303 WYMAN STREET, SUITE 300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Peter Schmidt officer: Chief Medical Officer 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 178, WALTHAM MA 02451
Jill Andersen officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary 303 WYMAN STREET, SUITE 300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Christine Lindenboom director 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 178, WALTHAM MA 02451
Frederick W Driscoll officer: Interim CFO
David Hering director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 303 WYMAN STREET, SUITE 300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Marc Elia director, other: See Remarks C/O SQZ BIOTECHNOLOGIES COMPANY, 200 ARSENAL YARDS BOULEVARD, SUITE 210, WATERTOWN MA 02472
M28 Capital Management Lp other: See Remarks 700 CANAL STREET, 2ND FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Clive Meanwell director, 10 percent owner THE MEDICINES CO, 8 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054

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