IT Tech Packaging (IT Tech Packaging) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

What is IT Tech Packaging Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IT Tech Packaging Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

IT Tech Packaging Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of IT Tech Packaging's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

IT Tech Packaging (IT Tech Packaging) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » IT Tech Packaging Inc (AMEX:ITP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Science Park, Juli Road, Xushui District, Hebei Province, Baoding City, CHN, 072550

Website

https://www.itpackaging.cn

IT Tech Packaging Inc is a holding company engaged in the business of paper manufacturing in China. The company operates as a producer and distributor of paper products. It involves in production and distribution of three categories of paper products: packing paper (corrugating medium paper), offset printing paper, and tissue paper products. It also produces digital photo paper. Its business is structured into two segments Dongfang Paper and Tengsheng Paper which produces offset printing paper and corrugating medium paper, tissue paper and Baoding Shengde which produces face masks and digital photo paper.

Executives

Zhenyong Liu	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ORIENT PAPER, INC., SCIENCE PARK, JULI ROAD, XIUSHUI COUNTY, BAODING CITY,HEBEI PROVINCE F4 072550
Jing Hao	officer: Chief Financial Officer	SCIENCE PARK, XUSHUI TOWN, BOADING CITY, HEBEI PROVINCE F4 072550
Hon Wai Ku	director	SUITE 815, 8TH FLOOR, OCEAN CENTRE, HARBOUR CITY, 5 CANTON ROAD, KOWLOON,, HONG KONG F4 0000
Wenbing Wang	director	21ST FLOOR, BUILDING B, JIA MING CENTER, NO. 27 DONG SAN HUAN NORTH ROAD, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100020
Winston C Yen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	345 S. FIGUEROA STREET, #100, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Drew Bernstein	director	C/O BERSTEIN & PINCHUK LLP, SEVEN PENN PLAZA SUITE 830, NEW YORK NY 10001
Zhaofang Wang	director	ROOM 401, UNIT 4, 20TH FLOOR FANGYUANLI, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100061
Fuzeng Liu	director	SCIENCE PARK, XUSHUI TOWN, BOADING CITY, HEBEI F4 072550
Xiaodong Liu	director	SCIENCE PARK, XUSHUI TOWN, BOADING CITY, HEBEI F4 072550
Chen Li	director	SCIENCE PARK, XUSHUI TOWN, BOADING CITY, HEBEI F4 072550
Dahong Zhou	officer: Secretary	SCIENCE PARK, XUSHUI TOWN, BOADING CITY, HEBEI F4 072550
Max Time Enterprise Ltd	10 percent owner	PO BOX 031-088, SHENNAN ZHONG ROAD, SHENZHEN CITY F4 518031
Hui Ping Cheng	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	C/O MY QUOTE ZONE, 6130 ELTON AVENUE, LAS VEGAS NV 89107