Inspirato (Inspirato) Predictability Rank

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What is Inspirato Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Inspirato Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Inspirato (Inspirato) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Inspirato Inc (NAS:ISPO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1544 Wazee Street, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.inspirato.com

Inspirato Inc is a luxury travel subscription company on a mission to inspire lasting memories and relationships by changing the way family and friends experience the world. It provides solutions for (i) affluent travelers seeking superior service and certainty across a wide variety of accommodations and experiences and (ii) hospitality suppliers who want to solve pain points that include monetizing excess inventory and efficiently outsourcing the hassle involved in managing rental properties.

Executives

Robert Kaiden	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O INSPIRATO INCORPORATED, 1544 WAZEE STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Scott D Berman	director	C/O INSPIRATO INCORPORATED, 1544 WAZEE STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Bradley A Handler	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O INSPIRATO, 1544 WAZEE STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Brent L Handler	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O INSPIRATO, 1544 WAZEE STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Ann L Payne	director	C/O INSPIRATO, 1544 WAZEE STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Eric Grosse	director	333 108TH AVENUE N.E., BELLEVUE WA 98004
Institutional Venture Partners Xiii, L.p.	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 2, SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
David S Kallery	officer: President	C/O INSPIRATO, 1544 WAZEE STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Revolution Portico Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	1717 RHODE ISLAND AVENUE, NW, 10TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Exclusive Resorts Llc	10 percent owner	1515 ARAPAHOE STREET, TOWER 3, SUITE 300, DENVER CO 80202
R Scot Sellers	director	C/O ARCHSTONE-SMITH, 9200 E. PANORAMA CIRCLE, SUITE 400, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Revolution Management Co Llc	10 percent owner	1717 RHODE ISLAND AVENUE NW, SUITE 1000, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Alps Investment Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	1717 RHODE ISLAND AVENUE, NW, 10TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Millennium Technology Value Partners Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	747 THIRD AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Stephen M Case	10 percent owner	1717 RHODE ISLAND AVENUE, N.W., 9TH FLOOR, WASHINGTON DC 20036