International Stem Cell (International Stem Cell) Predictability Rank

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What is International Stem Cell Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

International Stem Cell Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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International Stem Cell (International Stem Cell) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » International Stem Cell Corp (OTCPK:ISCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

9745 Businesspark Avenue, San Diego, CA, USA, 92131

Website

https://www.internationalstemcell.com

International Stem Cell Corp is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. It is focused on therapeutic and biomedical product development with multiple long-term therapeutic opportunities. The company develops different cell types from its stem cells that may result in therapeutic products. The clinical applications of the company include neural stem cells for the treatment of Parkinson's disease and other central nervous system disorders; Liver cells, which are used to treat a variety of congenital and acquired liver diseases; and retinal cells and three-dimensional eye structures. It operates in three segments, the therapeutic market, the biomedical market, and the anti-aging market. The Biomedical products business segment accounts for the majority of revenue.

Executives

Paul V Maier	director	3595 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Andrei Semechkin	10 percent owner	1 OVERLOOK DR. UNIT 11, AMHERST NH 03031
Sofya Bakalova	officer: Dir. of Legal Affairs & Oper.	5950 PRIESTLY DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Wright Don	director	2829 RUCKER AVE, 3RD FLOOR, EVERETT WA 98201
Jennifer Stephens	officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer	5950 PRIESTLY DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Mahnaz Ebrahimi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5950 PRIESTLY DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Rouslan Semechkin	director, 10 percent owner	2595 JASON CT, OCEANSIDE CA 92056
Tibor Jay Novak	officer: Interim CFO	5950 PRIESTLY DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
John Simon Craw	officer: Executive Vice President	5950 PRIESTLY DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
James H Berglund	director	C/O INTERNATIONAL STEM CELL CORPORATION, 5950 PRIESTLY DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Ar Partners Llc	10 percent owner	5950 PRIESTLY DR., CARLSBAD CA 92008
Kurt Andrew May	officer: President and COO	5950 PRIESTLY DRIVE, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Linh T Nguyen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5950 PRIESTLY DR., CARLSBAD CA 92008
Jeffrey Janus	director, officer: President	2595 JASON COURT, OCEANSIDE CA 92056
Charles J Casamento	director	99 BELBROOK WAY, ATHERTON CA 94027