Disc Medicine (Disc Medicine) Predictability Rank

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What is Disc Medicine Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Disc Medicine Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Disc Medicine (Disc Medicine) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Disc Medicine Inc (NAS:IRON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

321 Arsenal Street, Suite 101, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472

Website

https://www.discmedicine.com

Disc Medicine Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that is dedicated to transforming the lives of patients with hematologic disorders. The company is building a portfolio of inventive therapeutic candidates that affect fundamental pathways of red blood cell biology. Disc Medicine is committed to developing treatments that empower and bring hope to the many patients who suffer from hematologic disease. The firm's pipeline includes investigational product candidates that affect heme biosynthesis and iron metabolism.

Executives

Kevin Bitterman	director	C/O POLARIS VENTURE PARTNERS, 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3350, WALTHAM MA 02451
Atlas Venture Fund X, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mona Ashiya	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SIERRA ONCOLOGY, INC., 2150 - 885 WEST GEORGIA STREET, VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA Z4 V6C 3E8
William Richard White	director	C/O AKERO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 170 HARBOR WAY 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Joanne Bryce	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DISC MEDICINE, INC., 321 ARSENAL STREET, SUITE 101, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Rahul Khara	officer: General Counsel	C/O DISC MEDICINE, INC., 321 ARSENAL STREET, SUITE 101, WATERTOWN MA 02472
William Jacob Savage	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O DISC MEDICINE, INC., 321 ARSENAL STREET, SUITE 101, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Brian Richard Macdonald	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	C/O DISC MEDICINE, INC., 321 ARSENAL STREET, SUITE 101, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Ai Dmi Llc	10 percent owner	C/O ACCESS INDUSTRIES, INC., 40 WEST 57TH STREET, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Atlas Venture Associates Opportunity I, Llc	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Atlas Venture Associates Opportunity I, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Atlas Venture Associates X, Llc	10 percent owner	400 TECH. SQ., 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Access Industries Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	C/O ACCESS INDUSTRIES MANAGEMENT, LLC., 730 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019