IronNet (IronNet) Predictability Rank

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What is IronNet Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IronNet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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IronNet (IronNet) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » IronNet Inc (OTCPK:IRNTQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7900 Tysons One Place, Suite 400, McLean, VA, USA, 22102

Website

https://www.ironnet.com

IronNet Inc is a cybersecurity leader that is transforming how organizations secure their networks by delivering the first-ever Collective Defense platform operating at scale.

Executives

Linda Kay Zecher	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Donald Closser	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O IRONNET, INC., 7900 TYSONS ONE PLACE, SUITE 400, MCLEAN VA 22102
Cameron Pforr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O IRONNET, INC., 7900 TYSONS ONE PLACE, SUITE 400, MCLEAN VA 22102
James C Gerber	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O IRONNET, INC., 7900 TYSONS ONE PLACE, SUITE 400, MCLEAN VA 22102
William E Welch	director, officer: Co-CEO & Director	C/O ZSCALER INC, 110 ROSE ORCHARD WAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Michael J Rogers	director	C/O IRONNET, INC., 7900 TYSONS ONCE PLACE, SUITE 400, MCLEAN VA 22102
John M Keane	director	C/O METLIFE INC, ONE MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10010
Keith Brian Alexander	director, officer: Co-CEO, President & Chairman	P.O. BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226
Forgepoint Cybersecurity Fund I, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 S. EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 1050, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Forgepoint Cybersecurity Gp-i, Llc	10 percent owner	400 S EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 1050, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Andre Pienaar	director	C/O IRONNET, INC., 7900 TYSONS ONE PLACE, SUITE 400, MCLEAN VA 22102
Sean Foster	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O IRONNET, INC., 7900 TYSONS ONE PLACE, SUITE 400, MCLEAN VA 22102
Russell Cobb	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O IRONNET, INC., 7900 TYSONS ONE PLACE, SUITE 400, MCLEAN VA 22102
Forgepoint Cyber Co-investors I-e, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 S. EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 1050, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Forgepoint Cyber Co-investors I-c, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 S. EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 1050, SAN MATEO CA 94402