IO Biotech (IO Biotech) Predictability Rank

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What is IO Biotech Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IO Biotech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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IO Biotech (IO Biotech) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » IO Biotech Inc (NAS:IOBT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Ole Maaloes Vej 3, Copenhagen N, DNK, DK-2200

Website

https://www.iobiotech.com

IO Biotech Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing novel, immune-modulating cancer vaccines based on T-win technology platform. The product candidates are designed to induce the immune system to simultaneously target and disrupt multiple pathways that regulate tumor-induced immunosuppression.

Executives

Brian Burkavage	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PASSAGE BIO, INC., ONE COMMERCE SQUARE, 39TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Heidi Hunter	director	C/O SUTRO BIOPHARMA, INC., 310 UTAH AVE., SUITE 150, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Partners Kurma	10 percent owner	24 RUE ROYALE, PARIS I0 75008
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Vivo Opportunity Fund Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Devin Whittemore Smith	officer: General Counsel	C/O MINERVA NEUROSCIENCES, INC., 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 286, WALTHAM MA 02451
Vivo Capital Fund Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Vivo Opportunity, Llc	10 percent owner	192 LYTTON AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Qasim Iftikhar Ahmad	officer: Chief Medical Officer	1209 ORANGE STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Amy Sullivan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	38 OUTLOOK ROAD, SWAMPSCOTT MA 01907
David V Smith	director	6035 STONERIDGE DRIVE, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Lundbeckfond Invest A/s	10 percent owner	SCHERFIGSVEJ 7, COPENHAGEN G7 DK-2100
Jack Nielsen	director	C/O AKEBIA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, SUITE 1100, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Vanessa Malier	director	1209 ORANGE STREET, WILLMINGTON DE 19801
Claus A. Andersson	director	1209 ORANGE STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801