International Seaways (International Seaways) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2016. Start your Free Trial

What is International Seaways Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

International Seaways Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

International Seaways Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of International Seaways's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

International Seaways (International Seaways) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » International Seaways Inc (NYSE:INSW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

GLNG NS HEP VNOM HESM KNTK CEQP DHT STNG PAGP TSX:ENB EPD WMB ET LNG OKE MPLX KMI TSX:TRP CQP

Traded in Other Exchanges

INSW:Mexico IS5:Germany

Address

600 Third Avenue, 39th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10016

Website

https://www.intlseas.com

International Seaways Inc owns and operates a fleet of oceangoing vessels engaged primarily in the transportation of crude oil and petroleum products. The company's vessel operations are organized into two segments: Crude Tankers and Product Carriers. The fleet consists of ULCC, VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, and Panamax crude tankers, as well as LR1, LR2, and MR product carriers.

Executives

Jeffrey Pribor	officer: Chief Financial Officer	35 WEST 56TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Derek G. Solon	officer: VP and Chief Comm. Officer	C/O INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS, INC., 600 THIRD AVENUE, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Small James D Iii	officer: SVP & Secretary	C/O OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING GROUP, INC., 1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Lois K Zabrocky	director, officer: President	666 THIRD AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Douglas D Wheat	director	C/O HAAS WHEAT & PARTNERS LP, 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75201
Randee E Day	director	217 DEBRA LANE, PALM BEACH FL 33480
David I Greenberg	director	ALTRIA GROUP INC, 120 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017
William F. Nugent	officer: VP and Head of Shipping Ops.	C/O INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS, INC., 600 THIRD AVENUE, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10465
Ian T Blackley	director, officer: Senior Vice President & CFO	666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Stevenson Craig H Jr	director	C/O OMI CORP, ONE STATION PL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Adewale Oshodi	officer: Controller	1301 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 42ND FLOOR, C/O OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING GROUP, INC., NEW YORK NY 10019
Famatown Finance Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O SEATANKERS MANAGEMENT CO. LTD, P. O. BOX 53562, LIMASSOL G4 CY 3399
C.k. Ltd	10 percent owner	28 ESPLANADE STREET, ST. HELIER Y9 JE4 2QP
Greenwich Holdings Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O SEATANKERS MANAGEMENT CO. LTD., P.O. BOX 53562, LIMASSOL G4 CY 3399
Alexandra Kate Blankenship	director	33 BENEDICT PLACE, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830