Inovio Pharmaceuticals (Inovio Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Inovio Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Inovio Pharmaceuticals (Inovio Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:INO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

INO:Mexico GBMB:Germany GBMB:Germany

Address

660 West Germantown Pike, Suite 110, Plymouth Meeting, PA, USA, 19462

Website

https://www.inovio.com

Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc is a United States based biotechnology company that develops active DNA-based immunotherapies and vaccines to treat and prevent cancers and infectious diseases. The company is engaged in gene therapy, where its immunotherapy platform consists of DNA-based immunotherapy and electroporation delivery technologies.

Executives

Lota S. Zoth	director	334 CR 692, BUFFALO GAP TX 79508
David B. Weiner	director	717 BEACOM LANE, MERION STATION PA 19066-1603
Simon X Benito	director	967 LAWRENCE AVE, WESTFIELD NJ 07090
Michael John Sumner	officer: Chief Medical Officer	660 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 110, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Laurent Humeau	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 660 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 110, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Jacqueline Elizabeth Shea	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 660 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 110, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Peter Kies	officer: CFO
Roger D Dansey	director	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Jong Joseph Kim	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	660 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 110, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Jay Shepard	director	15977 GRANDVIEW AVENUE, MONTE SERENO CA 95030
Ann Calby Miller	director	C/O INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 660 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 110, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Wendy L Yarno	director
Morton Collins	director
George Bickerstaff	director	C/O VION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4 SCIENCE PARK, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Niranjan Sardesai	officer: Chief Operating Officer	VGX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 450 SENTRY PARKWAY, BLUE BELL PA 19422