INDUS Realty Trust (INDUS Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is INDUS Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

INDUS Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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INDUS Realty Trust (INDUS Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » INDUS Realty Trust Inc (NAS:INDT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

641 Lexington Avenue, 26th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.indusrt.com

INDUS Realty Trust Inc is a real estate company. The company is engaged in developing, managing, and leasing industrial properties, and to a lesser extent, office/flex properties. The major developments include industrial parks, Carolina Tradeport, New England Tradeport, and Lehigh Valley.

Executives

Susan Cullman	10 percent owner	641 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022-4599
Jon W. Clark	officer: Executive Vice President	420 LEXINGTON AVE., NEW YORK NY 10170
Edgar Jr Cullman	10 percent owner	641 LEXINGTON AVE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ccp Sbs Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O CENTERBRIDGE PARTNERS, L.P., 375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Cpref Ii Aiv Ii - A, L.p.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Cpref Ii Aiv Ii - B, L.p.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Centerbridge Partners Real Estate Associates Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Cpref Ii Cayman Gp Ltd.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Centerbridge Partners Real Estate Fund Sbs Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Jeffrey Aronson	10 percent owner	375 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152
Conversant Gp Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	90 PARK AVENUE 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Conversant Capital Llc	10 percent owner	25 DEFOREST AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Michael Simanovsky	10 percent owner	90 PARK AVENUE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10016
Thomas M. Lescalleet	officer: SVP, Griffin Land	C/O GRIFFIN LAND & NURSERIES, INC., 90 SALMON BROOK STREET, GRANBY CT 06035
Small Albert H Jr	director	24301 WALDEN CENTER DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134