Ikena Oncology (Ikena Oncology) Predictability Rank

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What is Ikena Oncology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ikena Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ikena Oncology (Ikena Oncology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Ikena Oncology Inc (NAS:IKNA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

645 Summer Street, Suite 101, Boston, MA, USA, 02210

Website

https://www.ikenaoncology.com

Ikena Oncology Inc is a targeted oncology company developing precision medicines tailored to biomarker-defined patient groups with specific unmet needs. Its targeted oncology product candidate, IK-930, is an oral small-molecule inhibitor of the transcriptional enhanced associate domain, or TEAD, a transcription factor in the Hippo signaling pathway. The Hippo pathway is genetically altered in approximately 10% of human cancers and is widely accepted as a prevalent driver of cancer pathogenesis and a mediator of poor outcomes for patients. its other product candidates are IK-175 and IK-595.

Executives

Owen Hughes	director	C/O RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 201 BROADWAY, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02139
Jotin Marango	officer: CFO & Head of Corp. Dev.	C/O APTOSE BIOSCIENCES INC., 251 CONSUMERS ROAD, SUITE 1105, TORONTO A6 M2J 4R3
Francisco Oliveira	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, SUITE 101, BOSTON MA 02210
Richard Wooster	director	C/O TRANSLATE BIO, INC., 29 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Xiaoyan Michelle Zhang	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC., 645 SUMMER STREET SUITE 101, BOSTON MA 02210
Jean Francois Formela	director	C/O ATLAS VENTURE, 890 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Atlas Venture Fund Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Maria Koehler	director	C/O REPARE THERAPEUTICS INC., 7210 FREDERICK-BANTING, SUITE 100, ST-LAURENT A8 H4S 2A1
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
David P Bonita	director	C/O ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC, 601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Mark Manfredi	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC., 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Maude Tessier	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC., 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Jeffrey Ecsedy	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O IKENA ONCOLOGY, INC., 50 NORTHERN AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210
Atlas Venture Associates Xi, L.p.	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Atlas Venture Associates Xi, Llc	10 percent owner	400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 10TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139