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PARTS iD (PARTS iD) Predictability Rank


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What is PARTS iD Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PARTS iD Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

PARTS iD Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PARTS iD (PARTS iD) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » PARTS iD Inc (OTCPK:IDICQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
OMTK FLES REII TSE:6902 MBLY TSE:5108 APTV XPAR:ML ISX:ASII XKRX:012330 TSX:MG XTER:CON SHSE:600660 LKQ SHSE:601689 TSE:7259 SZSE:002920 BWA XTER:HLE TSE:5802
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1 Corporate Drive, Suite C, Cranbury, NJ, USA, 08512
Website
https://www.partsidinc.com
PARTS iD Inc is a technology-driven, digital commerce company focused on online retailer of automotive parts, components, and accessories. The product portfolio includes interior products, exterior products, wheels, body parts, audio & electronics, automotive tools, and other related products. The Company provides its product vendors with access to its customer base and e-commerce market.
Executives
Eugene Kovshilovsky officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O PARTS ID, INC., 1 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Sanjiv Gomes officer: Chief Information Officer 16941 KEEGAN AVENUE, CARSON CA 90746
James Doss officer: Chief Financial Officer 1 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Kailas Agrawal officer: Chief Financial Officer 1 CORPORATE DR., SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Mark Atwater officer: VP of Vendor Relations 1 CORPORATE DR., SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Antonino Ciappina officer: Chief Executive Officer 1 CORPORATE DR., SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Lev Peker director US AUTO PARTS, 16941 KEEGAN AVENUE, CARSON CA 90746
Aditya Jha director 1 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Pendleton Brian John Jr. officer: See remarks 1308 RACE STREET, SUITE 200, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Edwin Rigaud director 3639 VINEYARD PLACE, CINCINNATI OH 45226
Ajay Roy officer: Chief Operating Officer 1 CORPORATE DR., SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Rahul Petkar director 1 CORPORATE DR., SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Roman Gerashenko 10 percent owner 1 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Stanislav Royzenshteyn 10 percent owner 1 CORPORATE DRIVE, SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Ann M. Schwister director 1 CORPORATE DR., SUITE C, CRANBURY NJ 08512