Intercept Pharmaceuticals (Intercept Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Intercept Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Intercept Pharmaceuticals (Intercept Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:ICPT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

305 Madison Avenue, Morristown, NJ, USA, 07960

Website

https://www.interceptpharma.com

Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biotech company focused on developing and commercializing novel therapeutics to treat progressive non-viral liver diseases. Obeticholic acid, or OCA, is an agonist of the farnesoid X receptor. OCA was approved as Ocaliva to treat primary biliary cirrhosis in 2016 and is being developed for a variety of chronic liver diseases, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, or NASH.

Executives

Andrew Saik	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	640 LEE ROAD, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
M Michelle Berrey	officer: President, R&D and CMO	303A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08450
Dagmar Rosa-bjorkeson	director	C/O BAXALTA INCORPORATED, 1200 LAKESIDE DRIVE, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Rocco Venezia	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Srinivas Akkaraju	director	565 EVERETT AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Lisa Defrancesco	officer: SVP, IR & Corp. Affairs	C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, FLOOR 37, NEW YORK NY 10001
Linda M Richardson	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	2505 MERIDIAN PKWY, SUITE 340, C/O CHIMERIX, INC., DURHAM NC 27713
Jared Freedberg	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Bryan Ball	officer: Chief Quality Officer	300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950
Sandip Kapadia	officer: CFO and Treasurer	450 WEST 15 STREET, SUITE 505, NEW YORK NY 10011
Jason Campagna	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10 HUDSON YARDS, FLOOR 37, NEW YORK NY 10001
Paolo Fundaro	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GENEXTRA S.P.A.,, VIA G. DE GRASSI, 11, MILAN L6 20123
Francesco Micheli	10 percent owner	C/O GENEXTRA S.P.A., VIA G. DE GRASSI, 11, MILAN L6 20124
Genextra S.p.a.	10 percent owner	VIA G. DE GRASSI, 11, MILAN L6 20123
Keith Michael Gottesdiener	director	900 FIFTH AVENUE, #8C, NEW YORK NY 10021