icad (ICAD) Predictability Rank

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What is icad Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

icad Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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icad (ICAD) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » icad Inc (NAS:ICAD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

98 Spit Brook Road, Suite 100, Nashua, NH, USA, 03062

Website

https://www.icadmed.com

icad Inc is a medical technology company providing cancer detection and therapy solutions. The Company reports in two segments: Detection and Therapy. The Detection segment include advanced image analysis and workflow solutions that enable healthcare professionals to serve patients by identifying pathologies, comprehensive range of high-performance, Artificial Intelligence and Computer-Aided Detection (CAD) systems and workflow solutions for 2D and 3D mammography, Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Computed Tomography. In the Therapy segment, the Company offers the Xoft System, an isotope-free cancer treatment platform technology. The Xoft System can be used for the treatment of early-stage breast cancer, endometrial cancer, cervical cancer and nonmelanoma skin cancer.

Executives

Eric Lonnqvist	officer: See Remarks	98 SPIT BROOK ROAD, SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 02062
Daniel Joseph Shea	officer: See Remarks	2 MINUTEMAN ROAD, MEDFIELD MA 02052
Jonathan Go	officer: Sr. VP of R&D	C/O ICAD, INC., 98 SPIT BROOK ROAD, SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 03062
Stephen P Sarno	officer: See Remarks	C/O SAPIENT CORPORATION, 25 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Andy Sassine	director	82 DEVONSHIRE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Dana R Brown	director	98 SPIT BROOK ROAD, SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 03062
Timothy Norris Irish	director	98 SPIT BROOK ROAD, SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 03062
Nathaniel Dalton	director	C/O AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP INC, 777 S. FLAGLER DR., SUITE 1201 E. TOWER, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Susan Alyson Wood	director	845 MORENO AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Michael S Klein	director	C/O ICAD INC, 98 SPIT BROOK ROAD SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 03062
Charles Ross Carter	officer: See Remarks	C/O GI DYNAMICS, INC., 745 ATLANTIC AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02111
Stacey M Stevens	officer: Executive VP of Marketing	C/O ICAD, INC., 98 SPIT BROOK ROAD, SUITE 100, NASHUA NH 03062
R. Scott Areglado	officer: Interim Chief FinancialOfficer	98 SPIT BROOK ROAD, SUITE 100, C/O ICAD, INC., NASHUA NH 03062
Rakesh Patel	director	15400 NATIONAL AVENUE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Dr Lawrence Howard	director	C/O PRESSTEK INC, 2 GREENWICH OFFICE PARK, GREENWICH CT 06831