What is Integral Ad Science Holding Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Integral Ad Science Holding Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Integral Ad Science Holding (Integral Ad Science Holding) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
95 Morton Street, 8th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10014
Integral Ad Science Holding Corp is a digital advertising verification company. Its cloud-based technology platform delivers independent measurement and verification of digital advertising across all devices, channels, and formats, including desktop, mobile, connected TV, social, display, and video. Geographically, the company derives a majority of its revenue from the Americas region.
Executives
| Vista Equity Partners Fund Vi, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
4 EMBARCADERO CENTER, 20TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Tania Secor |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
99 WALL STREET, #1950, NEW YORK NY 10005 |
| Lisa Utzschneider |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O YAHOO! INC., 701 FIRST AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089 |
| Tom Sharma |
officer: Chief Product Officer |
95 MORTON STREET, FLOOR 8, NEW YORK NY 10014 |
| Anil Sukumaran |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
99 WALL STREET, #1950, NEW YORK NY 10005 |
| Oleg Bershadsky |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
95 MORTON STREET, FLOOR 8, NEW YORK NY 10014 |
| Michael Eugene Fosnaugh |
director |
C/O PING IDENTITY CORPORATION, 1001 17TH STREET, SUITE 100, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Lucia Anthony C. Jr. |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
95 MORTON STREET, FLOOR 8, NEW YORK NY 10014 |
| Otto Berkes |
director |
95 MORTON STREET, FLOOR 8, NEW YORK NY 10014 |
| Joseph Pergola |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
95 MORTON STREET, FLOOR 8, NEW YORK NY 10014 |
| Brooke Nakatsukasa |
director |
95 MORTON STREET, FLOOR 8, NEW YORK NY 10014 |
| Vista Equity Partners Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
FOUR EMBARCADERO CENTER, 20TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Christina Silvia Lema |
director |
101 MERRITT 7, NORWALK CT 06851 |
| Martin A Taylor |
director |
100 WASHINGTON AVENUE S., SUITE 100, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55401 |
| Jill Putman |
director |
100 WASHINGTON AVENUE S., SUITE 100, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55401 |
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