New America Highome Fund (New America Highome Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is New America Highome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New America Highome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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New America Highome Fund (New America Highome Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » New America High Income Fund Inc (NYSE:HYB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

33 Broad Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02109

Website

http://www.newamerica-hyb.com

New America High Income Fund Inc is a diversified, closed?end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide high current income while seeking to preserve stockholder capital by investing in a diversified portfolio of high-yield fixed-income securities. The fund invests primarily in fixed-maturity corporate debt securities that are rated less than the investment grade. Its portfolio of investment consists of investments in different sectors such as energy, financial, cable operators, healthcare, and others.

Executives

Luis M Viceira	director	THE NEW AMERICA HIGH INCOME FUND, INC., 33 BROAD STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Marguerite A Piret	director	C/O NEWBURY PIRET AND CO., 200 STATE STREET 12TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Joseph I Bower	director	32 WIGGINS AVENUE, BEDFORD MA 01730
Bernard J Korman	director	OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS INC, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Ellen E Terry	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	33 BTROAD STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Oleg M Pohotsky	director	C/O HAMBRECHT & QUIST CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 2 LIBERTY SQUARE, 9TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Stuart A Mcfarland	director	C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP, 1345 AVE OF THE AMERICAS 46TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10105
Bank Of America Na	10 percent owner	100 N. TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Blue Ridge Investments, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	ONE BRYANT PARK, NEW YORK NY 10036
Bank Of America Corp /de/	10 percent owner	BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATE CENTER, 100 N TRYON ST, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc.	10 percent owner	4 WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, NORTH TOWER, NEW YORK NY 10080
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.	10 percent owner	4 WORLD FINANCIAL CTR, NEW YORK NY 10080
Robert F Birch	director, officer: President	C/O HYPERION BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT, THREE WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER, 200 VESEY STREET, 10TH FLOOR NY 10281-1010
Ernest E Monrad	director
Richard E Floor	director, officer: Secretary	C/O GOODWIN PROCTER LLP EXCHANGE PLACE, 26TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109