HubSpot (HubSpot) Predictability Rank

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What is HubSpot Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HubSpot Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HubSpot (HubSpot) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » HubSpot Inc (NYSE:HUBS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HUBS:Mexico 096:Germany 096:Germany H2UB34:Brazil

Address

25 First Street, 2nd Floor, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02141

Website

https://www.hubspot.com

HubSpot provides a cloud-based marketing, sales, and customer service software platform referred to as the growth platform. The applications are available ala carte or packaged together. HubSpot's mission is to help companies grow better and has expanded from its initial focus on inbound marketing to embrace marketing, sales, and service more broadly. The company was founded in 2006, completed its initial public offering in 2014, and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Executives

Brian Halligan	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O HUBSPOT, 25 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Ronald S Gill	director	C/O NETSUITE INC, 2955 CAMPUS DRIVE SUITE 100, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Kathryn Bueker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O HUBSPOT, INC., 25 FIRST STREET, 2ND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Dharmesh Shah	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	25 FIRST STREET, 2ND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Lorrie M Norrington	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2145 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125
Dawson Alyssa Harvey	officer: Chief Legal Officer	1100 PAGE MILL RD, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1974
Andrew Anagnost	director	111 MCINNIS PARKWAY, AUTODESK, INC., SAN RAFAEL CA 94903
Yamini Rangan	officer: Chief Customer Officer	333 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Claire D'oyly-hughes Johnson	director	C/O AMERESCO, INC., 111 SPEEN STREET, STE. 401, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701-3812
John P. Kelleher	officer: General Counsel	25 FIRST STREET, 2ND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Nick V. Caldwell	director	C/O HUBSPOT, INC., 25 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Michael K Simon	director	C/O LOGMEIN, INC., 500 UNICORN PARK DRIVE, WOBURN MA 01801
J Donald Sherman	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Hunter Madeley	officer: SVP, Global Sales	25 FIRST STREET, 2ND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
John Kinzer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	25 FIRST STREET, 2ND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141