Helius Medical Technologies (Helius Medical Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Helius Medical Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Helius Medical Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Helius Medical Technologies (Helius Medical Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Helius Medical Technologies Inc (NAS:HSDT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

642 Newtown Yardley Road, Suite 100, Newtown, PA, USA, 18940

Website

https://www.heliusmedical.com

Helius Medical Technologies Inc is a neurotech company focused on neurological wellness. The company's purpose is to develop, license or acquire non-invasive technologies targeted at reducing symptoms of neurological disease or trauma. The company's product, known as the Portable Neuromodulation Stimulator (PoNS), is authorized for sale in Canada as a class II, non-implantable medical device intended for use as a short term treatment of gait deficit due to symptoms from multiple sclerosis and balance deficit due to mild-to-moderate traumatic brain injury and is to be used in conjunction with supervised therapeutic exercise.

Executives

Dane Andreeff	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	C/O ANDREEFF EQUITY ADVISORS L.L.C., 140 E. ST. LUCIA LANE, SANTA ROSA BEACH FL 32459
Jeffrey S Mathiesen	director, officer: CFO and Treasurer	43334 SEVEN MILE RD., SUITE 1000, NORTHVILLE MI 48167
Favit-van Pelt Antonella R.	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O HELIUS MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 642 NEWTOWN YARDLEY ROAD, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Paul Buckman	director	12988 VALLEY VIEW RD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55402
Sherrie L Perkins	director	5033 TANGLE LANE, HOUSTON TX 77056
Jennifer Laux	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	642 NEWTOWN YARDLEY ROAD, SUITE 100, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Thomas E Griffin	director	C/O ENTELLUS MEDICAL, INC., 3600 HOLLY LANE NORTH, SUITE 40, PLYMOUTH MN 55447
Blane Walter	director	500 OLDE WORTHINGTON ROAD, WESTERVILLE OH 43082
Edward M Straw	director	C/O ESTEE LAUDER COMPANIES, 767 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10153
Joyce N Laviscount	officer: See Remarks	100 ENDO BOULEVARD, CHADDS FORD PA 19317
Huaizheng Peng	director	HELIUS MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES, INC., SUITE 400, 41 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Philippe Deschamps	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	105 BRADFORD RD, SUITE 420, WEXFORD PA 15090
Mitch E Tyler	director	HELIUS MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES, INC., SUITE 400, 41 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, NEWTOWN PA 18940
Jonathan Sackier	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Medical Officer	HELIUS MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES, INC., SUITE 400, 41 UNIVERSITY DRIVE, NEWTOWN PA 18940
A&b (hk) Co Ltd	10 percent owner	8/F BLDG A TONGFANG INFORMATION HARBOR, NO 11 LANGSHAN ROAD NANSHAN DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518057