HireQuest (HireQuest) Predictability Rank

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What is HireQuest Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HireQuest Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HireQuest (HireQuest) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » HireQuest Inc (NAS:HQI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

111 Springhall Drive, Goose Creek, SC, USA, 29445

Website

https://www.hirequest.com

HireQuest Inc is a nationwide franchisor of offices providing direct-dispatch, executive search, and commercial staffing solutions in the light industrial and blue-collar segments of the staffing industry and traditional commercial staffing. The company's franchisees provide various types of temporary personnel through two business models operating under the trade names HireQuest Direct, HireQuest, Snelling, DriverQuest, HireQuest Health, Northbound Executive Search, and MRI. The primary source of revenue for the company is royalty fees based on the operation of its franchised offices.

Executives

Lawrence F Hagenbuch	director	600 CORPORATION DRIVE, PENDLETON IN 46064
R. Rimmy Malhotra	director	C/O COMMAND CENTER, INC., 3609 S WADSWORTH BLVD., SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80235
Kathleen M Shanahan	director	24301 WALDEN CENTER DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Jack A. Olmstead	director	111 SPRINGHALL DRIVE, GOOSE CREEK SC 29445
Edward Jackson	director, 10 percent owner	111 SPRINGHALL DRIVE, GOOSE CREEK SC 29445
Richard Hermanns	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	111 SPRINGHALL DRIVE, GOOSE CREEK SC 29445
David S. Burnett	officer: CFO	C/O INTERLINK ELECTRONICS, INC., 31248 OAK CREST DRIVE, SUITE 110, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Richard F & Lisa S Hermanns Dynasty Trust Dated July 16, 2008	10 percent owner	240 S PINEAPPLE AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, SARASOTA FL 34236
Jd Smith	director	13506 SUMMERPORT VILLAGE PARKWAY #160, WINDERMERE FL 34786
John Mcannar	officer: Secretary, VP and GC	111 SPRINGHALL DRIVE, GOOSE CREEK SC 29445
Smith Cory	officer: CFO and Treasurer	360 S. MONROE STREET, APT. 707, DENVER CO 80209
Payne Brown	director	111 SPRINGHALL DRIVE, GOOSE CREEK SC 29445
Brendan Simaytis	officer: Executive VP & General Counsel	COMMAND CENTER, INC., 3609 S. WADSWORTH BLVD., SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80235
Steven Mark Bathgate	director	5350 S ROSLYN, SUITE 380, ENGLEWOOD CO 80111
Galen G Vetter	director	500 EAST GRANT STREET, #2011, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55404