Houlihan Lokey (Houlihan Lokey) Predictability Rank

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What is Houlihan Lokey Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Houlihan Lokey Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Houlihan Lokey (Houlihan Lokey) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Houlihan Lokey Inc (NYSE:HLI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2HL:Germany

Address

10250 Constellation Boulevard, 5th Floor, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90067

Website

https://www.hl.com

Houlihan Lokey Inc is an investment bank with expertise in mergers and acquisitions, capital markets, financial restructuring, valuation, and strategic consulting. The firm serves corporations, institutions, and governments worldwide with offices in the United States, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. The company operates in three segments. In the Corporate Finance business segment, it provides M&A and capital markets advisory services. Through the Financial Restructuring business segment, the company advises on some of the complex restructurings around the world. Financial and Valuation Advisory Services business segment provides valuation and financial opinion, and financial and strategic consulting practices in the United States.

Executives

Irwin Gold	director, 10 percent owner, officer: EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
Christopher M Crain	officer: GENERAL COUNSEL	C/O HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC., 10250 CONSTELLATION BLVD., 5TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
J Lindsey Alley	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC., 10250 CONSTELLATION BLVD., 5TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Scott L Beiser	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	C/O HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC., 10250 CONSTELLATION BLVD., 5TH FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Robert A Schriesheim	director	3333 BEVERLY ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Todd J Carter	director	700 CANAL STREET, THIRD FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06902
Paul Andrew Zuber	director	C/O HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC., 10250 CONSTELLATION BLVD., 5TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Scott Joseph Adelson	director, officer: CO-PRESIDENT	1930 CENTURY PARK WEST, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Ekpedeme M Bassey	director	C/O HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC., 10250 CONSTELLATION BLVD., 5TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Cyrus D. Walker	director	C/O MARIPOSA CAPITAL, LLC, 500 SOUTH POINTE DRIVE, SUITE 240, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
David A Preiser	director, officer: CO-PRESIDENT
Gillian Beth Zucker	director	C/O HOULIHAN LOKEY, INC., 10250 CONSTELLATION BOULEVARD, 5TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES AR 90067
Orix Hlhz Holding Llc	10 percent owner	1717 MAIN STREET, SUITE 900, DALLAS TX 75201
Orix Corp	10 percent owner	WORLD TRADE CENTER BLDG., SOUTH TOWER, 2-4-1 HAMAMATSU-CHO, MINATO-KU, TOKYO M0 105 5135
Jacqueline B Kosecoff	director	5960 HEISLEY ROAD, MENTOR OH 44060