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ZX (HKSE:09890) Predictability Rank


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What is ZX Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ZX Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

ZX Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ZX's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ZX (HKSE:09890) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » ZX Inc (HKSE:09890) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00797 HKSE:02400 HKSE:00777 HKSE:01119 HKSE:00799 HKSE:02660 HKSE:00302 HKSE:06633 HKSE:03798 HKSE:06820 ATVI ATVI NTES TSE:7974 EA TTWO RBLX TSE:3659 TSE:9766 TSE:9697
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 9 Olympic Stadium South Road, Tanwan Game Building, Building B, Synaesthesia Thinking Industrial Park, Tianhe, Guangdong, Guangzhou, CHN
Website
https://www.zx.com
ZX Inc is a publisher of online game products in China. It is devoted to marketing and operating online games (in particular mobile games) in China. The online games developed by its clients marketed and operated by the company are delivered to players under the Tan Wan brand. The company has enabled the marketing and operation of 11 game products for more than five years and 28 game products for more than three years.
Executives
Wu Xubo 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Tmf (cayman) Ltd. 2301 Trustee
Wxland Holding Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wxland International Ltd 2101 Beneficial owner
Wxland Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Trident Trust Company (hk) Limited 2301 Trustee
Wu Xuan 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Wxzela International Ltd 2101 Beneficial owner
Zela Holding Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chen Yang 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wxworld Holding Limited 2101 Beneficial owner

ZX (HKSE:09890) Headlines

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