Beisen Holding (HKSE:09669) Predictability Rank

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What is Beisen Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beisen Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Beisen Holding (HKSE:09669) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Beisen Holding Ltd (HKSE:09669) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

U8V:Germany

Address

No. 35 Shangdi East Road, Room 710, Building 1. Block B, Yiquanhui Building, Haidian District, Beijing, CHN

Website

https://www.beisen.com

Beisen Holding Ltd is an investment holding company. The company and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in providing cloud-based human capital management (HCM) solutions in the People's Republic of China which enables customers to recruit, evaluate, manage, develop, and retain talents efficiently. Its platform iTalentX delivers cloud-native SaaS products, namely cloud-based HCM solutions, for enterprises to recruit, evaluate, manage, and retain talents. Its platform offers a full suite of cloud-based applications covering an organization's HCM needs throughout the entire employee lifecycle.

Executives

Zuo Lingye	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hangzhou Jingwei Tengchuang Investment Management Partnership (limited Partnership)	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jingwei Chuangda (hangzhou) Venture Capital Investment L.p.	2101 Beneficial owner
Shanghai Jingwei Equity Investment Management Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shanghai Changchuang Investment Management Partnership (limited Partnership)	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shanghai Chuangji Investment Center L.p.	2101 Beneficial owner
Shanghai Jingsheng Investment Management Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tsing Young Holding Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hong Jing	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Zhaohui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ji Weiguo	2101 Beneficial owner
Chuang Xin Zi Ben Xiang Gang You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shenzhen Capital Group Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Scgc Capital Holding Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tianjin Hongshan Juye Equity Investment Partnership (limited Partnership)	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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