Henan Jinma Energy Company (HKSE:06885) Predictability Rank

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What is Henan Jinma Energy Company Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Henan Jinma Energy Company Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Henan Jinma Energy Company Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Henan Jinma Energy Company (HKSE:06885) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » Henan Jinma Energy Company Ltd (HKSE:06885) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

West First Ring Road South, Henan Province, Jiyuan, CHN, 459000

Website

https://www.hnjmny.com

Henan Jinma Energy Company Ltd operates as a coke producer and processor of coking by-products in the coking chemical industry in Henan province. It operates through the following business segments: Coke Segment is mainly engaged in the manufacture of Coke. The Refined Chemicals Segment is mainly engaged in the manufacture of benzene-based chemicals and coal-tar-based chemicals. Energy Products Segment is mainly engaged in the manufacture of coal gas. The Trading Segment is mainly engaged in the trading of coal and coal mining equipment. It generates maximum revenue from the Coke segment. Geographically, it derives revenue from the PRC.

Executives

Lam Yuk Wai	2202 Interest of your spouse
Yiu Chiu Fai	2101 Beneficial owner
Zheng Jing	2202 Interest of your spouse
Wang Li Jie	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ji Yuan Shi Jin Ma Xing Ye Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Bei Jing Fang Da Guo Ji Shi Ye Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fang Wei	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jiang Xi Fang Da Gang Tie Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jiang Xi Ping Gang Shi Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Liao Ning Fang Da Ji Tuan Shi Ye You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jin Xing Hua Gong Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jin Ma Jiao Hua Ying Shu Wei Jing Qun Dao You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jin Ma Neng Yuan Xiang Gang You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Ma Gang Ji Tuan Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ma An Shan Gang Tie Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner

Henan Jinma Energy Company (HKSE:06885) Headlines

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