CanSino Biologics (HKSE:06185) Predictability Rank

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What is CanSino Biologics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CanSino Biologics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CanSino Biologics (HKSE:06185) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » CanSino Biologics Inc (HKSE:06185) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

CASBF:USA CJH:Germany 688185:China

Address

185 South Avenue, 401-420, 4th Floor, Biomedical Park, TEDA West District, Tianjin, CHN

Website

https://www.cansinotech.com

CanSino Biologics Inc is a China-based company engaged in the research and development, manufacturing and commercialization of vaccine products for human use. These include products such as pneumococcal polysaccharide and conjugate vaccines as well as a DTcP-based combo and other items. At the same time, the group is also dedicated to the development of new vaccine-like recombinant adenovirus vector-based tuberculosis vaccines and a recombinant protein-based pneumococcal vaccine. Geographically, the activities are carried out through China.

Executives

The Capital Group Companies, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jpmorgan Chase & Co.
Citigroup Inc.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Blackrock, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Mao Helen Huihua	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qiming Corporate Gp Iv, Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qiming Gp Iv, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qiming Venture Partners Iv, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qm29 Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Qiu Dongxu	2501 Other
Yu Xuefeng	2501 Other
Zhu Tao
Chao Shou Bai	2202 Interest of your spouse
Orbimed Capital Llc	2102 Investment manager

CanSino Biologics (HKSE:06185) Headlines

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