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EPS Creative Health Technology Group (HKSE:03860) Predictability Rank


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What is EPS Creative Health Technology Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EPS Creative Health Technology Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

EPS Creative Health Technology Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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EPS Creative Health Technology Group (HKSE:03860) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » EPS Creative Health Technology Group Ltd (HKSE:03860) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00592 HKSE:00128 HKSE:00330 HKSE:00375 HKSE:00483 HKSE:01817 HKSE:02528 HKSE:01657 XMAD:ITX TJX TSE:9983 LULU ROST LSE:NXT BOM:500251 LSE:JD. BURL HKSE:06110 GPS BOM:543426
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
23 Man Lok Street, Flat A, 17th Floor, Gemstar Tower, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.epshk.hk
EPS Creative Health Technology Group Ltd is an investment holding company. Its segment includes the Garment business, Healthcare Products Business, and IRO with CRO and In-House R&D Business. It generates maximum revenue from the Garment segment which includes the provision of apparel supply chain management services for knitwear apparel products. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from Japan.
Executives
Eps Holdings, Inc. 2101 Beneficial owner
Y&g Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yan Hao 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
He Jun 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Rin Holding Co., Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Taiga Industrial Co., Ltd 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shinyou Kk

EPS Creative Health Technology Group (HKSE:03860) Headlines

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