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Yancoal Australia (HKSE:03668) Predictability Rank


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What is Yancoal Australia Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Yancoal Australia Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Yancoal Australia Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Yancoal Australia (HKSE:03668) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » Yancoal Australia Ltd (HKSE:03668) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ASX:WHC ASX:NHC ASX:TER ASX:AQC ASX:MCM ASX:MYE ASX:REY ASX:IEC ASX:AUH ASX:WEC SHSE:601088 ISX:BYAN BOM:512599 SHSE:601225 NSE:COALINDIA SHSE:600188 SHSE:601898 SHSE:601699 SZSE:000983 SHSE:600925
Traded in Other Exchanges
YACAF:USA YA1:Germany YAL:Australia
Address
201 Sussex Street, Level 18, Darling Park Tower 2, Sydney, NSW, AUS, 2000
Website
https://www.yancoal.com.au
Yancoal Australia Ltd is involved in identifying, developing, and operating coal-related projects in Australia. It has a diversified product mix of metallurgical and thermal coal mines in New South Wales and Queensland. The company generates maximum revenue from the New South Wales segment. Non-operating items of the Group are presented in Corporate segment which includes administrative expenses, foreign exchange gains and losses recycled from hedge reserve, and elimination of intersegment transactions and other consolidation adjustments. It operates coal mines in the Hunter Valley and mid-Western region of New South Wales and open-cut mines in Queensland's Bowen Basin. The company's geographical markets include Japan, Singapore, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and other countries.
Executives
Cinda Securities (h.k.) Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cinda Agriculture Investment Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cinda International Gp Management Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cinda International Hgb Investment (uk) Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Cinda International Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cinda Securities Co., Ltd. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
International High Grade Fund B, L.p. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Cinda (hk) Holdings Company Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Cinda (hk) Asset Management Co., Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Cinda (hk) Holdings Company Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Cinda (hk) Asset Management Co., Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yan Kuang Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yan Zhou Mei Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Glencore Plc 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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