GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Solomon Systech (International) Ltd (HKSE:02878) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Solomon Systech (International) (HKSE:02878) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2004. Start your Free Trial

What is Solomon Systech (International) Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Solomon Systech (International) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Solomon Systech (International) Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Solomon Systech (International)'s Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Solomon Systech (International) (HKSE:02878) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Solomon Systech (International) Ltd (HKSE:02878) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01679 HKSE:01912 HKSE:00243 HKSE:02203 HKSE:08066 HKSE:00085 NVDA TPE:2330 AVGO AMD QCOM TXN MU INTC ADI XKRX:000660 NXPI MRVL TPE:2454 XTER:IFX
Traded in Other Exchanges
RZF:Germany
Address
No. 3 Science Park East Avenue, 6th Floor, Unit 607–613, Wireless Centre, Hong Kong Science Park, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.solomon-systech.com
Solomon Systech (International) Ltd, along with its subsidiaries is a semiconductor company specializing in the design, development, and sales of integrated circuit products and system solutions for various applications like smartphones, smart televisions, and other smart devices including consumer electronics products, wearables, portable devices, and industrial appliances. Geographically, the company's business is spread across Taiwan, China, Europe, Japan, Korea, South East Asia, the United States of America, and other regions. Hong Kong generates maximum revenue for the company.
Executives
Huada Semiconductor Co., Ltd 2101 Beneficial owner
Zhong Guo Dian Zi Xin Xi Chan Ye Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Guo Dian Zi You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yeh Tsuei Chi 2101 Beneficial owner

Solomon Systech (International) (HKSE:02878) Headlines

No Headlines