Yixin Group (HKSE:02858) Predictability Rank

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What is Yixin Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Yixin Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Yixin Group (HKSE:02858) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Yixin Group Ltd (HKSE:02858) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1YX:Germany

Address

No. 365 Linhong Road, 1 North, Zhongguancun Hongqiao Innovation Center, Changning District, Shanghai, CHN

Website

http://www.yixincars.com

Yixin Group Ltd is an online automobile retail transaction platform in China. The company operates in two segments namely Transaction platform services and Self-operated financing business. The transaction platform segment is comprised of facilitation and value-added services, and advertising and subscription services. Self-operated financing segment comprises financing lease services and operating lease services. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Self-operated financing business.

Executives

Zhang Xuan	2101 Beneficial owner
Jd.com Investment Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jd.com, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liu Qiangdong Richard	2305 Beneficiary of a trust
Max Smart Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jd Financial Investment Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Ubs Trustees (b.v.i.) Limited	2301 Trustee
Tsang Ling Kay Rodney	2501 Other
Tencent Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hammer Capital Opportunities Fund L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheung Siu Fai	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cheng Chi Kong	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Woodbury Capital Management Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Silver Oryx Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hammer Capital Partners Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Yixin Group (HKSE:02858) Headlines

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