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Champion Real Estate Investment Trust (HKSE:02778) Predictability Rank


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What is Champion Real Estate Investment Trust Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Champion Real Estate Investment Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Champion Real Estate Investment Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Champion Real Estate Investment Trust (HKSE:02778) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Champion Real Estate Investment Trust (HKSE:02778) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00778 ASX:SCG SPG O ASX:VCX HKSE:00823 KIM REG SGX:C38U FRT XPAR:LI XPAR:URW NNN BRX ADC TSE:3462 SGX:N2IU TSE:8953 KRG ASX:RGN
Traded in Other Exchanges
CMPNF:USA
Address
Great Eagle Centre, 23 Harbour Road, Suite 3008, 30th Floor, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.championreit.com
Champion Real Estate Investment Trust, or Champion REIT, owns and invests in income-producing office and retail properties, with a focus on Grade A commercial properties in prime locations. In Hong Kong, the trust holds two assets in Three Garden Road in the central business district and the retail and office components of Langham Place in Mong Kok. Great Eagle Holdings listed Champion REIT with a 91.5% stake in Three Garden Road in 2006 and injected the Langham Place office and retail portions into the trust in 2008. The trust acquired the remaining stake in Three Garden Road and unified ownership of the property in 2013. Great Eagle Holdings retains a 68.3% stake in Champion REIT. In 2021, the trust entered into a joint venture to acquire a 27% stake in 66 Shoe Lane in London.
Executives
Great Eagle Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lo Ka Shui 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Eagle Asset Management (cp) Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Hsbc International Trustee Limited 2301 Trustee

Champion Real Estate Investment Trust (HKSE:02778) Headlines

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