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LC Logistics (HKSE:02490) Predictability Rank


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What is LC Logistics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LC Logistics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

LC Logistics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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LC Logistics (HKSE:02490) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » LC Logistics Inc (HKSE:02490) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02130 HKSE:03399 HKSE:02482 HKSE:01442 HKSE:00500 HKSE:08310 HKSE:06123 HKSE:08047 HKSE:01292 HKSE:01732 UPS FDX XTER:DHL XSWX:KNIN OCSE:DSV SZSE:002352 ZTO JBHT EXPD HKSE:01519
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9/F, China Stone Building, 37 Hong Kong Middle Road, Shinan District, Shandong Province, Qingdao, CHN
Website
http://www.burnasia.cn
LC Logistics Inc is a company involved in cross-border logistics services. The company provides services cover all major aspects of the cross-border logistics process, including cargo pick-up and sorting, customs clearance, cross-border seaborne transportation, warehouse transit and last-mile delivery.
Executives
Li Yan 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liu Quanxiang 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xu Xin 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Grand Sailing Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lecang Altitude Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Glorious Sailing Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Lecang Flourishing Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Spring Wealth Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lecang Shining Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Peace Seaworld Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

LC Logistics (HKSE:02490) Headlines

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