China Boqi Environmental (Holding) Co (HKSE:02377) Predictability Rank

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What is China Boqi Environmental (Holding) Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Boqi Environmental (Holding) Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Boqi Environmental (Holding) Co (HKSE:02377) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » China Boqi Environmental (Holding) Co Ltd (HKSE:02377) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. Jia 8, Xinglongzhuang, Floor 2, Guoben Culture Building, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100123

Website

http://www.chinaboqi.com

China Boqi Environmental (Holding) Co Ltd is an investment holding company. It operates in four segments: Environmental protection facilities, mainly including EPC, which consists of project design, procurement of equipment and materials, project construction and equipment installment, and testing services; Operation & maintenance segment comprises of operation service and regular maintenance service for desulfurization and denitrification facilities and dust removal facilities; Concession operations segment includes the construction of infrastructure or acquisition of existing infrastructure from the grantor and operation and maintenance of flue gas treatment project; and Others segment consists of the sale of by-products and others. The group primarily operates in the PRC.

Executives

Ge Tong	2202 Interest of your spouse
Zeng Zhijun	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Best Dawn Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Liquan Richard
Cheng Liquan Richard	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
World Hero International Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Liquan Richard	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Great Origin Ventures Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Asia Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhu Weihang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhou Xuan	2202 Interest of your spouse
Guang Fa Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si
Zhang Yi	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wan Ten Lap	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Partners Investment Management Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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