Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co (HKSE:02289) Predictability Rank

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What is Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co (HKSE:02289) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Distribution » Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd (HKSE:02289) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 235, Song Shan North Road, Longhu District, Guangdong Province, Shantou, CHN, 515041

Website

https://www.chmyy.com

Charmacy Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is a China-based pharmaceutical distributor. It distributes diversified pharmaceutical products to pharmaceutical distributors, retail pharmacies, hospitals, clinics, and health centers. The company's distribution network covers Southern China and surrounding areas including Fujian province. The firm offers Western medicines, Chinese patent medicines, healthcare products, Chinese medicine material and decoction pieces, medical devices, cosmetic products, and others. All the group's operations are located in China.

Executives

Jiangxi Pharmaceutical Investment Co., Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Jiang Yao Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jiang Xi Jiang Zhong Yi Yao Shang Ye Yun Ying You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yao Chuanglong	2101 Beneficial owner
You Zeyan	2202 Interest of your spouse
Guang Zhou Bai Yun Shan Yi Yao Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guang Zhou Yi Yao Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guang Yao Bai Yun Shan Xiang Gang You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Rays Capital Partners Limited	2102 Investment manager
Ruan David Ching Chi	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Asian Equity Special Opportunities Portfolio Master Fund Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Wang Yonghui	2101 Beneficial owner

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