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Tsit Wing International Holdings (HKSE:02119) Predictability Rank


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What is Tsit Wing International Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tsit Wing International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tsit Wing International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tsit Wing International Holdings (HKSE:02119) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Beverages - Non-Alcoholic » Tsit Wing International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:02119) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00756 HKSE:01446 HKSE:01115 KO PEP MNST HKSE:09633 KDP LSE:CCEP NSE:VBL COCSF CELH AC LSE:CCH COKE TSE:2267 IST:CCOLA FIZZ SHSE:603156 HKSE:00220
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
15–33 Kwai Tak Street, Flats F-J, 11th Floor, Block 1, Kwai Tak Industrial Centre, Kwai Chung, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.twcoffee.com
Tsit Wing International Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company engaged in the processing and sale of coffee, tea, and complementary products, sale of frozen processed food, sale and rental of coffee and tea machines, and food and beverage store operation. It has two operating segments: Beverage Solutions and Food Products. It derives majority revenue from the Beverage segment that processes and distributes coffee, tea and related complementary products, sells food and beverages, coffee machines and other related products, operates food and beverage stores and leases coffee and tea machines. The Group offers frozen food to renowned brands under its frozen food brand Papa Chef. The company operates in Hong Kong, Mainland China, and other countries with majority revenue from Hongkong.
Executives
Hero Asia Company Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Li Ying Wah Irene 2202 Interest of your spouse
Wong Tat Tong
Hero Valour Limited 2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Dah Chong Hong Food International Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Citic Group Corporation 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Citic Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Tsit Wing International Holdings (HKSE:02119) Headlines

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