China Gas Industry Investment Holdings Co (HKSE:01940) Predictability Rank

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What is China Gas Industry Investment Holdings Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Gas Industry Investment Holdings Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Gas Industry Investment Holdings Co (HKSE:01940) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » China Gas Industry Investment Holdings Co Ltd (HKSE:01940) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 9 Binhe Road, Lubei District, Hebei Province, Tangshan, CHN

Website

https://www.cgiiholdings.com

China Gas Industry Investment Holdings Co Ltd is an industrial gas supplier in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region. It is focused on the supply of pipeline industrial gas and liquefied industrial gas and also operates an LNG-related business which includes the supply of LNG and provision of gas transmission service relatively small scale. The company produces and supplies liquefied industrial gas to offsite independent end-user customers. Its segments include the Supply of industrial gas; Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas transmission service.

Executives

Hong Kong Kaiyuan Import & Export Co., Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Temasek Holdings (private) Limited
Shang Hai Hui Tang Zhi He Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
He Gang Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
He Gang Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Han Dan Gang Tie Ji Tuan You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Huitang Zhihe (hong Kong) Co., Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Thomson Capital Pte. Ltd.
Tembusu Capital Pte. Ltd.
Anderson Investments Pte. Ltd.
Springleaf Investments Pte. Ltd.
Huang He Investment Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Citp Gp I Ltd	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Infrastructure Partners, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Gas Investors Ltd.	2101 Beneficial owner

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