Southgobi Resources (HKSE:01878) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

What is Southgobi Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Southgobi Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Southgobi Resources Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Southgobi Resources's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Southgobi Resources (HKSE:01878) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » Southgobi Resources Ltd (HKSE:01878) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

SGQRF:USA SGQ:Canada

Address

355 Burrard Street, Suite 1150, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 2G8

Website

https://www.southgobi.com

Southgobi Resources Ltd together with its subsidiaries is an integrated coal mining, development, and exploration company. Its reportable operating segment is its Coal Division which is principally engaged in coal mining, development, and exploration in Mongolia and logistics and trading of coal in Mongolia and China. The company also holds the mining and exploration licenses of other metallurgical and thermal coal deposits in the South Gobi Province of Mongolia. The company owns the following operating coal mine and coal projects in Mongolia: the Ovoot Tolgoi Mine, Zag Suuj Project, and the Soumber Project.

Executives

Meng Fa Neng Yuan Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Gao Zhu	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Land Grand International Holding Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Inner Mongolia Tianyu Trading Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jd Dingxing Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jd Zhixing Fund L.p.	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhu Chonglin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
An Yong	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Inner Mongolia Yuxinsheng Technology Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Inner Mongolia Tianyu Innovation Investment Group Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Gang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wei Hong Guo Ji Neng Yuan Ke Ji Bei Jing You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Nei Meng Gu Wei Hong Neng Yuan You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Cinda (hk) Holdings Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Cinda (hk) Asset Management Co., Limited	2101 Beneficial owner

Southgobi Resources (HKSE:01878) Headlines

No Headlines