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Ernest Borel Holdings (HKSE:01856) Predictability Rank


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What is Ernest Borel Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ernest Borel Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Ernest Borel Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ernest Borel Holdings (HKSE:01856) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Ernest Borel Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01856) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:08026 HKSE:03389 HKSE:06838 HKSE:01466 HKSE:00789 HKSE:00280 HKSE:01815 HKSE:00860 HKSE:03326 HKSE:00442 XPAR:MC XPAR:RMS XPAR:CDI XSWX:CFR XPAR:KER NSE:TITAN HKSE:01913 HKSE:01929 XSWX:UHR OCSE:PNDORA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
193 Prince Edward Road West, Unit 1612-18, Level 16, Tower 1, Grand Century Place, Mongkok, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.ernestborel.ch
Ernest Borel Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company principally engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing, and sales of Swiss-made mechanical and quartz premium watches for men and women. Its collection of watches includes Royal, Braque, Jules, Borel, Retro, Cocktail, Galaxy, Cosmic, Heritage, Heartful, and other collections. Its geographical segments are China, Hong Kong, and Macau, and Others (mainly in Southeast Asia and Europe).
Executives
Citychamp Watch & Jewellery Group Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Full Day Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sincere View International Limited 2501 Other
Vgb Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Hon Kwok Lung 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lam Suk Ying 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xiong Wei 2202 Interest of your spouse
Xu Hong 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Ernest Borel Holdings (HKSE:01856) Headlines

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